Photo by SI.com

As we welcome the New Year, I’m sure basketball junkies all over the country are already thinking about our chances in this year’s FIBA Asia Championships that would serve as the qualifier for the London Olympics. This is the tournament that the SMART Gilas program (that started 3 years ago) was preparing for all this time and depending on whom you ask; expectations vary from winning it all to not even cracking the top 6.

The Gilas program is the first real national team program since the NCC days in the early 80’s, and while we had a lot of success then it was evident that this program will not share the same level of success early on. We can talk about all the drama that engulfed SMART Gilas program another day. In the meantime, I’d like to discuss all the adjustments (from reasonable to improbable) the Gilas program should make in my own humble opinion.

I broke it down to three major segments and they are as follows:

1. The coaching staff
2. Tourneys they’ll play in leading to FIBA Asia 2011
3. Roster adjustments

Coaching Staff

This is probably the team’s main strength. Coach Rajko’s system (mostly an “A” set based offense) is proven in international competitions as teams like Iran, Greece and Lithuania use something similar in the last few years. Having Coach Chot Reyes there shows the programs commitment to preparation because no one in the country has more experience and knowledge in FIBA Basketball than him.

Coach Binky Favis did a hell of a job for Chot 4 years ago as his scout and I have no idea if he’s part of the team’s staff or not but if he isn’t he should be strongly considered.

Being part of the MVP umbrella (as Ateneo’s coach and TnT’s assistant in the PBA), Norman Black I believe should be more involved with Gilas as well. His pressing defensive system and mastery of the dribble drive offense (which is suitable with the type of players that we have) would really complement Coach Rajko’s current system. He’s also the best skills coach in the country in my view so that would help a lot.

If we have all of these coaches on the team from here on out, I think we’ll have the most formidable coaching staff in the region.

Tournaments

I liked the tournaments that Gilas played in the past couple of years, at the same time I believe it’s about time to step it up a little bit. When I say step it up I mean let’s not join FIBA Asia Champions Cup because it’s a futile exercise.

Asian club teams generally rely too much on imports and that’s not how teams play in FIBA Asia. We should play the team’s that we’re going to go up against and what I mean by that is we should play them a bit more and not rely on the Jones Cup. With MVP bankrolling the team, we should do what RP Selecta did 9 years ago and join (if not organize) a couple of 4 team pocket tournaments against European or Top Asian National Teams.

We did the MVP Cup prior to the 2007 FIBA Asia so let’s just do it a couple of times with different sets of teams. If we can play mid level Euro teams (like Latvia, Italy and UK) on April and the top tier Asian teams (China, Iran, Korea and or Lebanon) right after the Jones Cup, that I think will get them used to playing against these teams prior to the tournament proper. Let’s also not forget that if these tournaments don’t work out, teams like New Zealand and Australia could also be available and will be very thrilled to come over if we invite them.

I know there’s always the risk of injuries and burning your players out but with the lack of progress that Gilas has had the past couple of years, I don’t think that leaves us with much of a choice.

Roster

This is where it gets really tricky. After 2 years under Coach Rajko, the only players that displayed the ability to play within his system with some level of success are the following:

• PG- JV Casio
• SG/PG- Chris Tiu
• SF- Mac Baracael
• C – Greg Slaughter
• G – Marcio Lassiter
• F- Japeth Aguilar (there was 1 tournament he played well.. I think)

Jason Ballesteros I believe will be a tremendous player in the future but I don’t think his time is now. Mark Barrocca was given countless opportunities and it’s no secret that he needs to go. Chris Lutz showed some promise when he initially joined the team but has been so so since and he’s a playing a position that can be filled easily so I think he’s in a tough position. Then there’s Dylan Ababou who’s always intriguing with his unlimited range and has decent size but like Lutz he’s too inconsistent and could be expendable. 

The addition of Marcus Douthit would alleviate our biggest area of improvement which is an inside presence to contend with the regions giants from China, Korea, Japan, Kazakhstan and West Asian Powers Iran, Lebanon, Qatar and to a certain degree Jordan. While guys like Hamed Haddadi, Zaid Abbas, Jackson Vroman and Yi Jianlian won’t lose sleep with Douthit’s inclusion in the Gilas roster, he has decent size, strength, speed and a go to post move that will keep their interior defense honest.

Then there’s the PBA. While their relationship with SBP and Gilas is “okay” at the moment. They need to consider themselves as “partners” if we’re going to be significant in Asia again. It’s easier said than done because of their current business model but I’m going to talk about adding PBA players to the Gilas pool assuming the world is perfect and everyone loves each other. So if I talk about something ludicrous, calm down and hold off on calling me names just yet.

Here are the PBA Players that I’d love to join the GILAS Pool (not necessarily shoo-ins)

• F- Kelly Williams – The best athlete that we have. If you have any doubts, watch the Asian games
• F- Joe Devance – He’s 6’7, can shoot, pass, rebound and has a high basketball IQ and a class act on and off the floor. Getting him is not a priority, it’s a necessity.
• F- Jay Washington – like Devance, he has size, range, is versatile and athletic. Things we can’t have too much of.
• G- Cyrus Baguio – Prior to his Alaska stint, I always thought of him as someone who gets by solely on his athleticism (like Arwind Santos). Now, I believe he’ll have a very good chance of starting for Gilas if given an opportunity. He has uncanny quickness, has a nose for the ball, can beat anyone off the dribble, has unlimited range and can run an offense efficiently.
• G – Gabe Norwood – Another guy that could be awesome for Coach Rajko. Can play all perimeter positions effectively. Perhaps the most versatile player that we have. Would be the perfect lead defensive guard to give opposing playmakers fits. He might have an erratic jumper but he can pretty much do everything else very well.
• G- Ryan Reyes – its funny no one even talks about this guy. He’s a 6’2 point that is an awesome on the ball and team defender and equally adept at taking it strong to the rack, hit the “3” and creates opportunities for teammates.
• G/F – Jared Dillinger – pretty similar to what Norwood brings to the table. Size, speed and impeccable defense.  Not as good a point guard as Gabe but is a feistier one. Perfect for Coach Rajko’s system.
• G – James Yap – his defense is below average but he can score against anyone and rarely misses if he gets a clear look at the basket.

There are some great PBA players that I left out like Rabeh Al-Hussaini, Rico Maierhoffer, Macmac Cardona, LA Tenorio and Sonny Thoss not because they won’t be great additions, I just don’t think they can be effective in the international brand of play. Guys like Asi Taulava and Jimmy Alapag have shown they can hang with anyone. It’s just that it’s time to give the younger guys an opportunity to show what they can do.

Speaking of youngsters, there are bunch of guys here and abroad that are intriguing prospects for Gilas and again if the world is perfect, it would be great to get them all on board so Coach Rajko can get a closer look at them.

• Christian Standhardinger  SF(6’8) – I haven’t seen him play at all but everyone seems to think he’s something special and so I think we should get a closer look at this Fil-German prospect.
• Stanley Pringle PG (6’0) – probably the best athlete of this bunch. The former Penn State standout would be a great addition but it doesn’t seem like he’s even interested to come over.
• Kiefer Ravena (Guard)   - It’s unclear if Kiefer is ready to take on Asia’s elite.  What’s clear is he’s head and shoulders above everyone in the high school and perhaps collegiate level.
• Ray Parks SG/PG (6’4) – The newest Yellow Jacket is the most intriguing prospect in my opinion. I believe he’s one of those rare youngsters that can and will be a valuable contributor if he makes the team (or invited even). He has good size for his position and is very composed for someone his age.
• Chris Banchero PG (6’1) – This guy can flat out score. Has been lighting up everyone in the NCAA’s (Division II) for the past couple of months. It’s still uncertain if he’ll be a good fit but I can’t wait to see him out on the floor with the likes of Kelly Williams and Marcio Lassiter.

I’m pretty sure there’s a plethora of players and coaches that I missed out on and for that I apologize. I’m also fully aware most of the aforementioned scenarios are a little farfetched so I’d save the whole “are you nuts? That’s never gonna happen!” reactions.

I’d like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and may this be the year we finally reclaim the Asian Basketball Supremacy.

By Bong Paredes:

In the next few hours, game 1 of the 2010 NBA Finals will be underway and for the last few days all I hear from people everywhere is how the Lakers are a lock to win the title because of the upgrades they’ve made the last couple of years since losing to these same Celtics in the 2008 Finals. While I don’t disagree with the aforementioned statement, to think that the Lakers have a better chance of winning the championship than the C’s is just absurd because like the Lakers-Celtics rivalries in the 80’s, there are no favorites in this series. This is as evenly matched as it gets.  With that being said, let’s have some fun and try to figure how things will unfold based on how each team matches up against the other.

Centers and Power Forwards:

When the Celtics beat the Lakers for the title 2 years ago Kevin Garnett was a monster down low. He (along with PJ Brown) bullied and terrorized Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom on defense while anchoring their offense in the mid and low post. Perkins and Leon Powe were running rings around the Laker bigs mainly due to the attention KG was drawing.

Things are a little different now. While KG still has the swagger and toughness, he’s no longer the player he once was. Now a 75% KG is still pretty darn good and with Rasheed Wallace (also no spring chicken at age 35) spelling him for 15 to 24 minutes a game, this rotation along with Big Baby and Perkins should still be the tougher frontcourt. If you have any doubts, ask Dwight Howard. The Lakers however improved a lot as well as evidenced by last year’s drubbing of Orlando. Pau has shown that he has a bit of a mean streak and Lamar Odom, while still a little inconsistent has proven that when the Lakers need him he’ll deliver. The only question with him is will he “bring it” often enough. Oft injured center Andrew Bynum is still a question mark once more as his knees betrayed him for the 3^rd straight year. Whatever the Lakers can get from him should be treated as a bonus.

Edge: Lakers (by a very small margin)

Small forward:

Paul Pierce was the difference in the 2008 NBA Finals because no one can defend him at that time. Luke Walton was too small, Radmanovic was too slow and Ariza just came back from an injury.  Now we’ll truly find out if the Lakers’ decision of bringing in Ron Artest to fill in Ariza’s spot was the right one. This is also a matchup that people blow out of proportion. I know Artest is one of the best defensive players in the game and if there’s someone in this league that I’d want in Pierce’s grill with the game on the line its Ronron. At the same time, though he has lost half a step, Pierce’s footwork is one of the best I’ve seen and while Ron is an excellent defender, “The Truth” will get his numbers eventually. I’m sure he’ll have Artest in foul trouble in at least a couple of games and when that happens, it won’t be pretty for LA. An ancient Michael Finley and an off sync Marquis Daniels might not be much but the Lakers aren’t deep in the “3” spot as well. Add to the fact that Pierce is an excellent defender that can cover Kobe in certain situations and defensive switches, it’s clear that the Celts have this matchup down.

Edge: Celtics

Shooting Guard:

Ray Allen has been solid all year round and has been the most consistent one of the “Big three”. He remains one of the better “2’s” in the game and is a pretty decent defender as well. What makes him a tough cover is his ability to attack the rim and finish with the best of them. The only problem is he’s going up against one of the best of all time in Kobe Bryant who’s been playing like a man possessed (even for Kobe’s standards). Allen will have his moments and the other Allen (Tony) might even have some brief success covering the “Black Mamba” but it would hardly matter because after this series is done we’ll be talking about where to rank him in the top 5 players of all time.

Edge: Lakers

Point Guard:

Derek Fisher is one of the hardest working players in the NBA and is as “clutch” as they come but this is Rajon Rondo’s time and there is nothing the Derek Fisher and the Lakers can do about it. The only thing keeping Rondo away from superstar status is a consistent perimeter jumper. He can get to wherever he wants to at any given time which is why I believe Kobe will be on him more than Fisher, Farmar and Brown. In 2008, the reason Kobe was on him was because he isn’t much of a threat offensively and Kobe can roam defensively to disrupt passing lanes.  This time however, Kobe will be on him because he’s the best perimeter defender the Lakers have.  And after his shenanigans in the West Finals, don’t expect Vujacic to get a lot of burn to cover Rondo.  The Lakers inability to defend ultra quick guards gives Nate Robinson an opportunity to be a factor in this series.

Edge: Celtics

Outlook:

These teams are so evenly matched it’s not even funny. The way I see this unfolding is they’ll split the 1^st 2 games in LA with the Lakers stealing one game in Boston. The Lakers, down 3-2 at this point will win 2 in a row at home to repeat as NBA champions. Pierce and Rondo will be the best players for Boston with Wallace playing big in 3 games while Gasol and Odom will each have 4 big games (not necessarily on the same night). Kobe will average 35 ppg or more with Ron Artest and Derek Fisher making the Celtics pay for leaving them open late in games.

Prediction: This will be a 7 game series with one game being decided in OT. LA wins 2^nd consecutive title (Kobe and D fish’s 5^th and Phil Jackson’s 11^th)

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Photo by ESPN.com

By Bong Paredes:

After soundly beating one of the toughest welterweights of this era in Miguel Cotto, Manny Pacquiao not only cemented his claim as the pound for pound king he’s now also widely considered as one of the top 20 boxers (top 10 or 15 depending on who you ask) of all time. He also set the stage for perhaps the biggest grossing event in prizefighting history should he and Floyd Mayweather Jr. push through with their proposed mega fight sometime in May.

Now we all know that while this is the only fight that makes sense for both fighters, there’s a strong possibility that negotiations (mainly about the purse split between the two fighters) will not be an easy task as both Manny (his camp at least) and Floyd feel that they should have the bigger piece of the pie. Majority of the boxing populace felt that if negotiations fall through it will be was because Floyd would price himself out of the fight and tell the world how he doesn’t need to fight Manny.

Well, it seems a lot of people were wrong. If what I read in the papers (here in the Philippines) are true, Floyd’s camp has already agreed in principle to face Manny in May and that Pac is in no rush to get back in the ring as he wants another crack at a seat at the House of Representatives.

Manny Pacquiao is a kind hearted and generous man and he loves the Philippines and everyone in it and that is the main reason why he wants to run for office, to once again defy the odds and be the voice of the masses and to help as many as he can.

There’s only one problem with that, everyone loves him for doing what he does best and that is boxing. I’m not saying he’s not going to do well as a Congressman, what I’m saying is that this is the fight that you don’t put off. This is the fight of all fights. It’s not like some promoter is pitting a couple of good fighters and building it up as something bigger than what it’s supposed to be (like Mayweather vs. Dela Hoya). This is a fight between the two best boxers of this era who’s both in the prime of their careers and in one weight class. It doesn’t get any better than this.

Both fighters owe this to the boxing world and surprisingly, Mayweather already did his part so it’s now up to Manny step up and sign on the dotted line. So once again Manny, if you are reading this please keep in mind that while I admire you for everything that you want to do for our country should you win in the coming elections, it will be a big letdown for the boxing community if you put this fight off.

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By Bong Paredes:

UFC 104 Predictions:

Tonight is going to be the first time we’ll see UFC Heavyweight Champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida in action after he won the title against Rashad Evans last May and I have no doubt that this will be one hell of a fight as Shogun will surely bring it. But before we talk about the main event, I’ll try to break down a couple other fights in the card.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (catchweight 176 lbs.)

Everybody knew all along that Johnson will eventually move up to middleweight because his frame is just too big for a welterweight and his body just can’t take the weight cut that much longer. With that being said, I believe that his size and power will spell the difference in this fight.

Yoshida has excellent Judo but Johnson is not only big, he has a very good wrestling base as well so I highly doubt it if he can take Johnson down. I also believe that Johnson has a better all around standup game than Koscheck so if Yoshida tries to bang with him; he’s going to fall asleep early.

Prediction: Johnson by KO in the very first round.

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez (Heavyweights)

Ben Rothwell is undoubtedly a better well rounded fighter at this point in their respective careers but one thing you have to remember is that while Ben may be good at a lot of things, he’s not dominant in any. Although this is Rothwell’s first UFC fight, I believe he’ll be a perfect gatekeeper in the division so whatever happens tonight, I expect Ben to have a long UFC career.

Cain Velasquez is far from polished but even this early in his career his wrestling and overall power will be too much for Rothwell. I also don’t believe that Rothwell can hit Cain harder than Kongo did. If he can’t knock out China chin Arlovski, then he can’t put Cain to sleep.

Prediction: Velasquez by unanimous decision

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (Light Heavyweight Championship)

Without a shadow of a doubt, this will be the fight of the night. One is a come forward in your face guy (Rua) and one is an excellent counter striker (Machida) and both have an impeccable standup game. I’m not sure if we’ll ever see Shogun in PRIDE FC shape but he looks as good as he has been since entering the UFC and that is a good sign for Rua fans.

The problem is, Machida seems to be still getting better at age 31 and if he comes in as focused as he’s always been it will be a long night (maybe short) for Shogun.

Prediction: Lyoto by KO midway through the 3^rd round

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By Bong Paredes:

In less than 24 hours we will finally get to see if Marquez has what it takes to compete and perhaps beat the best boxer for the last 10 years in Floyd Mayweather Jr. As a guy that never met a fight he didn’t like, Marquez is going to in the ring for the first time where he isn’t pegged as the better and faster counterpuncher, and seeing that those are the main attributes that allowed him to give Manny Pacquiao fits the outlook is not so bright for the Mexican great. A lot of fans believe he has a good chance of beating Floyd and I am not in a position to say he doesn’t because he is an excellent fighter, I just don’t see it happening. These same people will allude to Mayweather’s inactivity as the possible reason for his “0” to go. They also said that even if he is consistently working out while he was retired, being in gym shape and in boxing shape are two totally different things and I agree. Because even the great Michael Jordan was not able to instantly reclaim his throne after and 1 month layoff. All of those things are true but there’s a big difference in that analogy that they failed to take into consideration. Basketball is a team sport while boxing is not. There are a lot of match-ups aside from Michael Jordan and Penny Hardaway that made the difference, that’s something Floyd will never need to worry about.

Some fans also said that Marquez’ uncanny ability to make unbelievable mid fight adjustments will make a lot of difference; his fights with Pacquiao and recently with Juan Diaz are living proof. That is true, but he’s fighting Floyd Mayweather here, Floyd is the master of that. Chopchop Corley cracked him really bad early in their fight but that was as close as he got. He may be a braggart and we might not like it but most of what he’s saying is true. There is no blueprint on how to beat him. Many boxers and trainers look at first fight with Jose Luis Castillo because that was the only fight Floyd had a hard time from start to finish but he proved to everyone that it was a one time thing. He beat Castillo in a rematch and everyone that fought him after that tried the very same approach to no avail. If you have any doubts, ask Baldomir, Hatton and Dela Hoya how it worked for them.

Marquez’ ability to recuperate after getting hurt is great but there will be a distinct difference this time. Marquez is not a fast starter and if you look at his fights against Pacquiao and Juan Diaz, he made the necessary adjustments after he was dropped and/or hurt. The difference with Mayweather is he is always a step ahead of anyone. If Marquez gets hurt early and he will get hurt, Mayweather will pick him apart just like anyone else. He’ll make adjustments based on Marquez’ adjustments and it will be a vicious albeit potentially boring cycle. Marquez will have his moments but he doesn’t have enough power to really hurt Mayweather in my view. Both fighters said they will try to knock each other out and I hope for all our sakes they stay true to their word. Either way, I see Mayweather winning this one easy. I think it will be a unanimous decision win but if Marquez’ machismo and stubbornness comes into play, he’ll get knocked out in by the 9^th or 10^th round.

By Bong Paredes:

This Sunday’s UFC card might not be as stacked as the previous ones but there are a few fights that are really interesting and as Mike Goldberg would say, “And here we go!”

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca (Lightweights)

This one has fight of the night written all over it. It might be a cliché but it rings very true that these guys always come to fight. Though Franca is an excellent grappler it will be interesting if he can take Griffin to the ground. Griffin has an excellent sprawl and knows how to keep the fight standing up where he has a slight advantage over Franca. I like Griffin on this one, at the same time the former WEC champion (Franca) will be a handful which means this is going to be an exciting one.

Prediction: Griffin by unanimous decision

 Mirko CroCop vs. Junior Dos Santos (Heavyweights)

 I highly doubt it if any of these guys will receive a title shot after winning this one but it is still an exciting match up nonetheless. In a weird, twisted kind of way, this is not only a chance for Crocop to creep back into title contention but it will be an opportunity to exact revenge for his former grappling coach Fabricio Werdum who was knocked out senseless by the heavy handed youngster in Junior Dos Santos. It will be easier said than done as Crocop is nowhere near the level he once was and Dos Santos is quickly learning the game and is getting better by the day. It’s just a shame because we don’t get to see him fight that long because he always knocks people out within the first few minutes and I highly doubt that this one will get past the first round as someone is bound to get knocked out early. I’ve always been a Crocop fan and I want him to succeed but I think his time has passed as an elite contender. If he has something left in the tank and wins, I’ll be more than happy to eat crow.

 Prediction: Dos Santos by KO in the first round.

 Vitor Belfort vs. Rich Franklin (Catchweight 195 lbs.)

 I don’t know about you guys but I can’t wait to see Belfort back in the Octagon. Make no mistake about it though; he’s going to have to be as sharp as he was against Matt Linland because Rich Franklin is going to present a lot of interesting challenges for him. Rich is a unique fighter because he is as well rounded as anyone could be, yet he isn’t dominant in any aspect. It will be interesting how he’ll deal with Vitor’s hand speed and power. Franklin has a pretty good chin but Anderson Silva proved to all of us that Rich has a hard time against quick fighters. Belfort might not be as elusive as Silva but as far as hand speed and KO power goes, Vitor is at par with the middleweight champ. Franklin is one of my favorite fighters but I’m confident Vitor Belfort will punctuate his return to the UFC by knocking out one of the best in Rich Franklin.

Prediction: Vitor Belfort wins by 2^nd round KO.

By Bong Paredes:

A few hours from now, 2 of the greatest heavyweights of all time will square off to find out who still has it or who needs to hang it up. This might not have that type of stipulation but it certainly seems like it. But before we talk about the main event, let’s talk about some of the fights that I find intriguing. Without further ado, here they are:

Mark Muñoz vs. Nick Catone (Middleweights)

The sole reason why I writing about this fight is because Mark is a fellow Filipino and I got to give some love to a brother.  I’m not implying that this fight is not interesting; it’s just that I don’t see how Catone can even keep this competitive and entertaining. Catone is primarily a wrestler and with Muñoz being a former NCAA Wrestling Champ in 2001 totally cancels out his only chance of an upset. By the way, have you seen Mark lately? He looks totally different from the guy that got knocked out by Matt Hamill at UFC 96. His move down in weight made him look like a monster. I never thought he can be that ripped, and I guess that’s exactly what he’ll do to Catone.

Prediction:  Muñoz wins by shutout 3 rounds to none in a decision

Result: Munoz wins by split decision 29-28

Aaron Simpson vs. Ed Hermann (Middleweights)

Has the making of an exciting fight as both these guys fight in only one direction and that is forward.  Hermann has been a good gatekeeper for the UFC and if Aaron Simpson wins, then he’s ready to be in the mix of contenders in the middleweight division.

Prediction: Simpson by KO Round 1

Result: Simpson by TKO rd.2 due to an injury

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynsky (Light Heavyweights)

I’ll make this short and sweet. Soszynsky’s 6 fight win streak is going to come to an end. Brandon will chop those legs down and I even see a head kick ending this thing. Vera has tremendous speed advantage and he should capitalize on it.

Prediction: Vera by KO round 2

Result: Vera by Unanimous decision 30-27

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia (Middleweights)

As much as it pains me, I have to choose a winner in this one. Both of these guys are my favorites so it will be tough. Nate is a better stand-up guy and has a good ground game but he’ll be stupid if he takes this to the ground. 8 of Maia’s 10 wins were by submission and as good as Nate is on the ground, Demian is at least a couple of notches better. If Demian can withstand Nate’s early onslaught, he’ll win this one.

Prediction: Nate Marquardt by KO round 2 (this one might bite me in the ass but, whatever)

Result: Nate wins by KO round 1

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Heavyweights)

If we’ll talk about both fighters’ credentials, it will take all day. So here’s the quick synopsis, Couture is the best heavyweight the UFC has ever seen and Nogueira is the best PRIDE heavyweight of all time not named Fedor, so there. In pro wrestling analogy, this would be like the first time Hulk Hogan and Ric Flair wrestled each other. I don’t remember what happened then but tonight I feel Randy has a little bit more in the tank than Nogueira. “Minotauro” looked terrible against Mir and while he was partly injured at the time he didn’t really look great against Sylvia prior to the later stages of that match. Still, regardless of the outcome, both their legacies are already firmly in place.

Prediction: Randy Couture by KO midway through the 3^rd round

Result: Nog wins by UD

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Gerry Peñalosa is perhaps the most well rounded boxer the Philippines has produced

By Bong Paredes:

If you are a young and aspiring Filipino boxer, chances are, you pattern your fight game after Manny Pacquiao and to a lesser extent some might say they look at guys like Gerry Penalosa, Nonito Donaire and Brian Viloria for inspiration. But about ninety nine percent of them will almost always look at Pacquiao as the fighter they will try to emulate. After all, who wouldn’t want to be like Pacquiao?  The guy is the best pound for pound boxer in the world today. These days, if a fighter is in the 135-147 lb. neighborhood, and they just got off a big win, they call out Pacquiao because not only is he the best boxer but one of the top draws as well. So it’s completely understandable for an aspiring Filipino boxer to look up to him, look at what he’s accomplished and think that if he can do it, I can as well.

It’s a great story, yes. But I have a little problem with that. Yes, Pacquiao came from humble beginnings (like most of us Filipinos). Yes, he’s a hard worker and he got to where he is because of his impeccable work ethic, and that is a pre requisite for anyone in any field to succeed so that I’m all for. But what people seem to not take into consideration is that Pacquiao is a freak of nature. He has this uncanny combination of speed and power, unbelievable cardio and an aggression that is unparalleled. There are hundreds of boxers out there that are very aggressive but if they get hit flush, they hesitate (something Bernabe Concepcion found out about a week ago). Now I’m not saying it’s a weakness because that is a natural human response, to stay away from the stressor, regardless if it’s a conscious effort or not. Pac is a rarity in that regard. He might have tapered down a little bit when JMM was peppering him with counters and uppercuts in both of their fights but Pac was still considerably aggressive that he still gave JMM fits. Again, not everyone possesses these attributes. This is why I think most Filipino boxers get smashed when they get in the ring with world class fighters.

It’s not the fault of the boxers and their trainers because they are just following the formula that has worked for Pacquiao and some of the earlier Filipino ring legends like Flash Elorde and Rolando Navarette. I can also say that some of the Filipino trainers need to learn from trainers outside the country because what I’ve noticed in some of our gyms is that most of the trainers are either former pro boxers or amateur boxers and as much I have the utmost respect for anyone brave enough to step into the ring, they don’t necessary translate into good trainers. And a great number of trainers in the Philippines fit that mold.

Filipinos are brave fighters and will give their all but I just hate seeing promising boxers like Boom Boom Bautista not reaching their full potential because they get in the ring with a top level fighter too soon and being too brave for their own good. I know Boom Boom is still young and can still rebound but I doubt if he’ll be as good as we initially thought he would be. Was he as determined as Pac? Yes. Was he as hardworking? It seems like. Was he as powerful? Not really. Was he as fast? Not even close. What am I getting into? We cannot be all like Pacquiao. If you love the sport and want to be successful and you need to emulate someone, make sure that it’s a fighter that closely resembles what you can potentially do based on your physical attributes. It might be an oversimplification but it’s true. There are a lot of fighters out there that we can watch. Gerry Penalosa is one, he’s not as entertaining as Pac but he is a much better boxer. If more of our boxers approach the game the way Gerry does, then we’ll have more elite fighters. Take Jimrex Jaca for example. He could’ve been something special. He has decent skills, nice hand speed. Good instincts and decent power. If he took the Penalosa counter punching, slipping and sliding route, he could have been something special. But what did he do? He came in against Marquez like a house on fire and tried to knock him out the way Pac would and we all know how that worked out for him.

I would love nothing more than see another Filipino succeed in boxing and no I’m not hating on anyone. Filipino boxers and trainers need to raise their level of awareness because bravado alone just won’t cut it. Jeff Lacy might be one of the gutsiest boxers I know but that didn’t do him any favor against the likes of Joe Calzaghe and Roy Jones Jr.

I guess that’s the reason we haven’t had a lot of success in the amateur boxing circuits as well even with the deep talent pool the Philippines has. It might be a cliché but the concept of the game is to hit and not be hit. A face first approach works for some guys like Pacquiao but it’s not for everyone and our Filipino brothers should keep that in mind.

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Guys like Gabe Norwood would have to do what Sun Yue wasn't able to. Contain Rasheim Wright

Photo from FIBA.com

By Bong Paredes:

This is it! If there’s anything up our sleeves, now is the time to pull them all out because it’s “win or go home” time for Powerade Team Pilipinas. Losing this game against Jordan means kissing our opportunity to play in the World Basketball Championships in Turkey goodbye, so if there’s a time for us to play our perfect game, it’s now.

Keep in mind that should we not qualify for the Worlds, this could be the last time we’ll see the PBA in the international stage as they already reneged on sending a team after 2010, and since this is the last major basketball tournament for that time period, this should be their last hurray unless of course the PBA board will have a change of heart and consider what Coach Yeng (and Coach Chot before him) suggested which is to have a pool of the best PBA players train together whenever the PBA schedule would allow them to so we won’t be starting from scratch every single tournament like this one. But that’s something we should talk about another time.

What we have to deal with tomorrow is a team that humiliated us in the Jones Cup and was undefeated in this year’s FIBA Asia until they ran into The Big Red Machine yesterday. Yes they lost to China, but who hasn’t? What’s different about that loss is that they were right on China’s grill the entire time and they showed they belong on the same floor. Something that couldn’t be said about our team, because the last time we lost to single digits against China and seemed like a legitimate threat to them was when the 1998 PBA Centennial team had a tune up game against them prior to the Asian games. And it wasn’t an official game even. Eleven years after that and the disparity between the levels of play of our respective teams just widened even further. The fact that we can put Jordan in the same breath as China (at least this tourney) speaks volumes of our chances of winning tomorrow.

As I will always say, if Lebanon sneaked up on France why can’t we do the same against a team like Jordan, right? But for us to do that we have to play a near perfect game as they are not only big and strong but very efficient and smart as well. Our defense has to be at its optimum level (all 40 minutes of it). If you’ve seen the game between China you’ll know why.  China’s defense has always been tough because of their length and speed. Yesterday, it gave most of the Jordanians fits but not all of them. Their naturalized player Rasheim Wright was like a hot knife through butter as he sliced his way to another monster offensive game as he scored 28 points against the likes of Sun Yue and with guys like Yi Jianlian and Wang Zhizhi manning the middle. Sam Daghlas also did well yesterday and if this backcourt duo can wreak havoc against China then our guys will definitely have their work cut out for them. Their frontcourt might not have a Yi or a Hadadi but it’s just as imposing as guys like Idais and Zaid might not be NBA players but they can certainly hold their own against any frontcourt in Asia. These bigs can run, defend and score in any way imaginable. They can shoot up to 20 feet out and they have nifty post moves and counter move that’s very hard to stop. What’s really scary is their chemistry. Coach Mario Palma is doing an incredible job as he made Jordan this good in only 2 years. Zaid said it best in one interview. He said that this team has developed their fluidity by playing together for 2 years so they know each other’s tendencies like they know their selves. What he didn’t say was during that time period, not only did they play together but they went overseas and tested their mettle with teams from Europe, Africa and the US.  Something you can’t put a price tag on, and something we should do ourselves.

Now that we’ve established how daunting our task is, let’s talk about what we should do to work our way around it. And there’s nothing more important than our defense. Jordan likes to work from the middle and they have 2 favorite ways of doing it. Initially, they will give the ball in the mid post to either Abbas or Idais and have them create there. Both guys can hit the jumper on a consistent basis so we have to stay close. Not too close though because they can handle the ball well and can drive by you if you’re caught flat footed. They also set very good picks to free up the guards so they could just drop it inside to a cutter if our guards are caught napping. The person who initially provided the screen though will stay home for the possible 3 ball and the tricky part is that all players can inter change roles so we better not hesitate for a moment and communicate well. If we’re going to switch make sure you do it because it only takes a split second of hesitation for them to capitalize on that. They are also constantly moving and they never clutter on any side so guys like James Yap better be committed to play defense, if not, I can see them exploiting Yap, Raymundo, Santos and Helterbrand because they’re either too frail, slow or goes under screens a little too much. We also have to make sure we put a body on people. They can kill us on second chance points and again it all goes back to their constant motion. We just can’t do zone with this team because they are bigger. The second way they attack from the middle is something we should be able to defend by now if we learned anything at all. They like opening up the floor and have Wright or Daghles start with a simple pick and roll. It’s very simple yet we haven’t seen our team defend it well on a consistent basis. Kamrani and Nikkah had a field day against us with basically the same play. Both Wright and Daghlas have the size and strength to finish strong (see China game) so we better give them a hard time. As a team, they like dumping the ball on the guys roaming the baseline to jumpstart their offense if their initial attack falters so look out for it because they can all nail that ten footer if we don’t watch it. Japeth better be smart with his fouls because we need all the size we can get. The lack of lateral quickness of Taulava, Thoss and Pennisi is a concern but if they play as hard as they did against Iran we might have a chance to hold our own. Dillinger, Norwood and Baguio are defensive stalwarts that should provide us with both stability and explosiveness.

Offensively, everything has to click. We have to attack the rim early. We cannot post them up but we have great penetrators like Miller, Baguio, Norwood and Dillinger. They better be aggressive and smart to read the defenses if it’s there take it if it’s not,pull it back and facilitate the offense. Thoss, Aguilar and Taulava better finish if someone dishes the ball to them. If not, Jordan can just play off of them and wait for the kick out and perhaps steal the ball. If Yap has another big offensive game in him this would be the perfect time for it. It’s imperative that we shoot well from the outside as I’m sure we won’t get too many offensive rebounds. Finally, we need to take care of the ball. These Jordanians are like hawks that can snatch the ball like that and have 30 points off of turnovers so better not be careless. We have to also watch our spacing because if we don’t they’ll kill us with their size and splendid defense.If we can also execute the weave properly and make it seem like the person holding the ball is an actual scoring threat that should help too. Because what usually happens is when we weave, we move away from the basket and not closer to it and when guys like Thoss, Taulava or Pennissi holds the ball, they seem to just go through the motions and wait till the next guy weaves and gets it. It totally defeats the purpose of the play and it becomes too predictable and that will cause a lot of turnovers that can hurt us. It could also potentially get our bigs into foul trouble due to illegal screens. So if we do the weave, it should be done properly.

Making it to the quarterfinals is an achievement in itself all things being considered (lack of preparation, injuries etc.). At the same time, it would mean a lot to our basketball crazy nation if we make it to the Final Four. It will be tough, but it’s very possible. We have Gabe Norwood after all and wasn’t he part of that George Mason team that defeated top seeded UConn a couple of years back? I have a feeling Gabe will be celebrating that way tomorrow. This should be another Cinderella finish for Gabe. The only difference is instead of sporting a green GMU jersey, he’s wearing the red, white and blue of TEAM PILIPINAS.

Prediction: Conventional wisdom says Jordan by 15 but I believe RP can win this by 5. GO TEAM PILIPINAS!